Reader Vote April

The results from this straw poll are amazingly consistent with the results of the last poll. Some social researchers might be happy with this consistency, because the ability to replicate outcomes, and the "fit" between data sets is important.

However, we’re a little troubled by the similarity between results. It might mean the same people are responding, and that we are not reaching a cross section of voters.

There might be many reasons for this. For one thing, the readers are not a representative cross section of the population.

This is a common problem. Another article in this issue featured the results of a poll on cannabis legalization. They queried about 1000 people out of 160 million national voters or .000625%, we queried about 65 people out of 1600 local voters or 4.0625%.

However, the Prospect poll might still not be representative.  In the case of the Prospect, and we mean this with all honesty and candor, our readers are more intelligent, and often more "21^st Century" than the average person. No offense to dead tree newspapers, I read them myself, but in this county, in this millennium, the Prospect has characteristics which make it the thinking person’s media: our readers are smarter.

So, our poll might be predicting who would win the election if held that day, and if only the smart and trendy could vote.

To test the validity of the poll, I did what pollsters do, I compared our outcomes with the opinion of another county pundit: Don Russell. I did not tell Mr. Russell I was checking our results against his "gut" reaction, because he probably would have caused me to buy him strong drink in exchange; however, he is the person to go to for gut reactions, on several levels.

Mr. Russell and our poll agree in general, and differ significantly only on the matter of judges.

The Prospect Poll shows a race between Ervin and Larson and Archer a close 3^rd and Prouty with barely a show. Russell sees the contest right now between Prouty and Archer. It wouldn’t be smart to contradict the Prospect poll, but frankly I see the contest between Prouty and Ervin with Archer a tight third, but we won’t know until the middle of June, or perhaps November.

The Prospect Poll shows Karen Rickman beating Scott Schlefstein, and Don Russell agrees. He has good reasons for agreeing, sound reasons based in the politics of the Loyalton area and a recent shift in those politics.

However, the Prospect Poll shows that though Rickman won, most people who voted couldn’t vote in that district. There is no way to tease out which votes would have been eligible, we just know that no more than 18 people who voted in the poll could actually vote for either Scott or Karen.

A criticism we’ve heard about the Prospect poll is that "only liberals and Democrats read the Prospect". If that were true, why didn’t Prouty win? He’s running for a non-partisan office just like Karen and Scott are. His office is on the West side, where the intelligencia are thought to live. He has the best connections among local and semi-local legal folks. He has a long list of supporters on his website. He answered the Prospect questions very professionally. Why is he lagging behind Ingrid Larson, who is scarcely campaigning?

There is much more to the contest between Rickman and Schlefstein than can be illustrated by either the poll or Pundit Russell. Figuring the demographics of District 5, and how hard some of our readers in that area work to pretend they don’t read the Prospect, and considering that far more people visited the poll than completed it, I’m going to suggest that the race for District 5 is pretty close.

Likewise, the judicial race is close. However, Ervin has been pounding the streets, shaking hands, and talking to people. He’s somewhat conservative, as Archer is, and has modest experience. Ervin is a personal injury attorney, an "ambulance chaser" in the parlance. Does that work for or against him? In questioning local folks on the street I found that some people smirked at him for this while others seemed to realize he’d been essentially a client advocate. If you’re being sued, he’s an ambulance chaser. If you have been injured and need help, he’s an advocate. I’ll take an advocate behind the bench.

Prouty has good experience, and he has good connections among local legal people. Is that familiarity with other court people a good thing? It could easily go either way. On the one hand, they are already familiar and have a good relationship, on the other hand, they are already good old boys and girls together. I personally don’t want the judge to get along with the D.A. or the cops too well. I don’t believe we’re all criminals who should be put away forever, I think we’re average people who screw up or get caught in a bind.

Archer is well known and respected by many local people. Some will vote for him on that basis, and on the fact that he, like Larson, actually does live in the county even though he practices in Truckee a great deal. He’s fairly conservative in his views.

The judge race is close, because we are blessed with some decent candidates.

The other races are pretty clear. Evans has a strong lead in the Prospect and across the county. Huebner has broad support and is facing a challenge mostly from people who can’t vote in that election and who are pushing partisan politics.

It is still a horse race, even in the races that seem to be a foregone conclusion. This is politics, and politics at this level is public opinion, a river that rises and falls and suddenly changes its banks.

Thanks to everyone who voted in the reader poll!