Prospect Prognostication

Using all of the Predictive Powers contained in our "Predict-O-matic" software, (except "answer hazy, ask again later") we make the following predictions for 2010:

HSRA will still be here in a year. It will be a significantly different organization, but it will still be functional, and it will prevail over the Feather River Inn.
Conventional wisdom: 1. the "counter" HSRA group will have too little mainstream support, and infighting among the group will weaken it, but it will still have enough momentum to bring significant change to HSRA: 50% likelihood. 2. The heavy handed efforts of the "contras" will actually revitalize support for HSRA (30%) 3. HSRA will plod on with the only strategy it knows, and the new group will peter out by June (10%) 4. Something altogether different will happen (10%)

By the end of 2010 we will have lost four more main street businesses, but will have gained a viable 21^st Century business (either internet business or green business).
1. The Economic Development Committee, Sierra Work Connection and Sierra County Human Services will coordinate an effort to locate and furnish a computer commuter training and job contract site (40%); 2. A private workforce company will locate and coordinate a computer commuter contract work site (20%); 3. A government-private partnership will be organized to profit from biomass in the county (20%). 4. A value added wood products, recycling, or other waste stream products utilization company will start up in the county (10%); 5. Another internet or green business will start up (10%)

The economy in the county will not turn around, but it will stabilize.
1. Over all unemployment in the county and region will stabilize, with newly unemployed being offset by newly employed and newly out of the system when the remaining families flee the sagging school system (60%); 2. New Title III moneys will create more jobs than anticipated (30%) 3. Generational change will result in a few building or investment opportunities (10%).

Sierra County Government will experience change at a rate higher than the rest of the county (this happened to a significant degree in 2009, and the trend will continue).
Conventional wisdom states that these changes are likely to be compound, and so values will add up to more than 100% 1. The sudden retirement of a significant department head will bring upset and change to the County (30%); 2. Administrative, ministerial and procedural changes springing from developments in other counties will bring subtle changes to the way County government, law enforcement and judicial do their jobs (40%); County functionality will collapse within the limits of law and the union will make only token complaint (40%); Two supervisors, County Council, the Auditor and one other department head will formulate a non-traditional revenue generating scheme. (25%); Sierra County will declare war on the Forest Service and the next day surrender to Quentin Youngblood, dumping the whole thing in the lap of a higher power (5%: not likely to happen, but might be discussed).

Serious discussions will begin regarding the dis-incorporation of Loyalton. 1. An effort by about 30 citizens with no other agenda will form to try to put it to a vote in the hope of reducing local fees (30%); 2. Culmination of burdens will suddenly worsen (probably due to state or federal law,) and the city will be threatened with default (20%); 3. Funding changes will make it more advantageous for the county to provide services to the residents (20%); 4. A local pro-development faction will join an effort to dis-incorporate Loyalton in the hope of diminishing organized resistance to new development near but outside Loyalton (20%); 5. A new City Council of 3 members decides it has been too difficult to maintain city government and recommends selling some current city services to a private party (Ray Kruth?) and turning the keys to government over to Tim Beals (10%); something else will happen to encourage dis-incorporation, perhaps a law suit or heavy fines (10%)

The state of California, due to cuts in prison funding, will reverse itself and require all residents to buy and carry a handgun; signs along streets and highways will remind: Be Polite! All right, not very likely, but still worth predicting (5%).

There you have it, your Prospect Prognostications. We’ll see in a year how right our magic "Predict-O-matic" was.