Not over yet
H1N1 might infect one in three
Dr. Neil Ferguson
, professor of medical biology at Imperial College in London, and a fellow at the World Health Organization task force on H1N1 warns that the epidemic is just getting started.
According to Ferguson, the current epidemic has those features necessary for this variant of the flu to spread. His projections indicate that eventually one person in three might have the disease.
But, how many will die?
No one knows. So far, the flu has not been particularly deadly. Of those in Mexico, it kills about 4 per 1000 cases. However, that will likely change.
Ferguson estimates that in the end, this flu will be about like the “Asian flu” epidemic of 1957-63. That flu killed 2 million world wide; this time it might kill as many as 14 million, though no one really knows.
If you survived the flu of 1957, you might be protected against this flu.
Likely, the flu will die down during the summer, but will spread as people travel in the Northern Hemisphere. This winter, it will be back.